From staff reports STILLWATER – Early this year, the U.S. all-cattle inventory was 87.15 million head, the lowest inventory since 1951. On Jan. 1, the beef cow estimate was 28.22 million head, down 2.5% year over year—the smallest beef cow herd number since 1961.
“We have been watching this heifer on feed number as it has been running not quite record level, but it has been running very high,” Oklahoma State University Livestock Economist Dr. Derrell Peel said. “In October, I believe it was, it was exactly 40% of the total feedlot inventory. That was the highest number since about 2001. It dropped very slightly at less than a half-percent into Jan. 1 and it was 39.7%.”
In the April Cattle on Feed Report, Peel said heifers on feed make up 38.5% of the total feedlot inventory.
“It is still above average,” he said. “But it is coming down, and I think maybe this is the beginning of what we will see here.
“If you think back to the last time we had tight cattle numbers and sort of a cyclical low in cattle numbers like we are approaching, at least, I wouldn’t say we are quite there. That heifer percentage got down to around 33 or 34%.We are still at 38.5%, so we have got a way to go, but I think maybe it is beginning to come down now.”
Peel’s analysis of this report suggests a trend of ranchers retaining more heifers than before, which could affect the cattle industry.
“I have expected to see these feedlot inventories fall faster than they have,” he said. “And everything we have just described says the feedlots have been successful—up to this point—at offsetting the fact that cattle numbers are smaller with other means. I think as we go forward, it is going to be harder for them to do that.”