OKLAHOMA CITY – Until Thursday morning, Oklahoma’s 2026 election was pretty much developing as expected. The candidates – from the U.S. Senate down to the state House of Representatives – were ramping up their campaigns, raising money, and preparing for the April filing period.
Then, with one Truth Social post, President Trump altered the election landscape.
The president’s announcement was simple: he said he’d asked one of Oklahoma’s two U.S. senators, Markwayne Mullin, to become his new Homeland Security secretary.
That announcement set off changes that political hopefuls, campaign experts, and voters are still trying to figure out.
Trump had removed Kristi Noem, the head of Homeland Security, from her post. Many believed Trump made the move because Noem had received bipartisan criticism for her agency’s handling of the immigration crackdown, delays in emergency response and the agency’s wildly expensive promotional campaign.
Trump said Noem would transition to the role of special envoy for the Shield of the Americas, the president’s initiative for security against narcotics trafficking in the Western Hemisphere.
What wasn’t mentioned, though, was the dramatic changes caused to the state’s 2026 election by Mullin’s departure from the race.
If confirmed by the Senate, Mullin, a Republican from Westville, will leave a seat he has held for the past four years. With no incumbent, the number of potential candidates is expected to be high.
Meanwhile, Republican Gov. Kevin Stitt is required by state law to appoint an interim senator; however, the law prevents the governor from appointing himself to the post.
In addition, the law mandates that anyone accepting the nomination must sign a document agreeing not to run for the post, so the interim senator can’t seek a full term in 2026.
So, what does this mean? Pat McFerron, a nationally known Oklahoma pollster and conservative political consultant, said the move will cause a major shift in Oklahoma politics.
“Anytime you change a U.S. senator, it’s a big change in the state,” he said. “Mullin has only been a senator for four years.”
And the biggest question to be answered, he said, is what action will Stitt take?
“The first factor is what is Stitt going to do?” McFerron said. “Is he, himself, going to run?”
Former University of Oklahoma political scientist Keith Gaddie has the same question as McFerron.
“My question is, will Stitt run for the opening?” Gaddie, now a professor at Texas Christian University, said.
There are also questions about the state law that covers this race. The law’s author, Senate Pro Tempore Lonnie Paxton, said it was written before he was the Senate’s leader. Paxton said the law was designed to make sure the governor had the authority to appoint an interim senator.
Oklahoma was one of a small group of states where the governor didn’t have appointment power, Paxton said.
The law “was written at a time, I believe, the party makeup in the U.S. Senate was 50-50 or 49-50,” he said. “It was very close. And so, if we had, for some reason, a vacancy, we had to go through the regular special election process, which takes several months. For us to get through that, the seat would have had to be vacant the entire time. It could have kept (or altered) the power of the U.S. Senate.”
Paxton said the goal of the law was to ensure that the governor was not acting as a kingmaker and giving someone the power of incumbency.
“You’re putting somebody in that position to hold that spot until the next regular election, not a special election,” Paxton said.
Still, Paxton said he expects legal challenges to the law. He said if a candidate wanted to challenge, it would probably be heard in court. “My argument is, if you’re trying to kick somebody off the ballot because they signed that affidavit, I would agree we can’t do that, but I don’t think it’s unconstitutional.”
Right now, several media outlets are reporting that Oklahoma City oilman Harold Hamm has contacted both Stitt and Trump to seek the post. In addition, sources say Dustin Hilliary – one of the publishers of this newspaper – is also being considered.
So far, Stitt has remained silent on his plans.
While several prominent individuals are among those being considered, the governor has not said who he would appoint. But Stitt has a short window. The law requires the governor to nominate someone within 30 days.