NEWS ANALYSIS: Red surge sags, red consultants still win

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A Reagan conservative’s reflections

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OKLAHOMA CITY — There was plenty of excitement and tension along the way, but in the end the contentious race for the Republican National Committee chairmanship ended, as a poet might have put it, “not with a bang, but a whimper.”

Incumbent chair Ronna (Romney) McDaniel was easily re-elected with 111 votes to 51 for California conservative leader Harmeet Dhillon.

And four votes, for businessman Mike Lindell. 

And one for a New Yorker who lost the Empire State’s gubernatorial election in November.

After her first-ballot win, McDaniel called her two opponents to the stage for a promise of unity going forward.

Unity is a hope, an aspiration.

That’s a prayer, perhaps, which many conservatives hope is fulfilled.

Time will tell.

 

Ronna’s races

 

McDaniel is an acolyte of former President Donald Trump.

Former chairman of the Michigan State GOP, she emerged from the ranks to win the top job at the national party after the departure of Reince Priebus when he went to work for Trump in 2016.

Traditionally, the party chair usually stays neutral in open presidential primary elections, but McDaniel was passionately for the man who became the 45th president.

Among party faithful, that stance became relatively non-controversial through the 2020 election cycle, when Trump lost the presidency to Democrat Joe Biden.

In 2022, after two years of disastrous misgovernance by Democrats, grassroots Republicans, GOP-oriented pundits – and the powerful political consultants of the right – lived in an orgy of optimism fed by pre-election polling and McDaniel’s framing of issues, including her use of party coffers.

When the anticipated Red Surge turned into a Red Sag – with a one-vote increase for Democrats in the Senate, the narrow Republican U.S. House control, and mixed results down ballot – many thought it was a time for change at the RNC.

Change? It was not to be.

McDaniel had pledges from a majority of committee members from the start and did not shed those.

 

The alternative

 

McDaniel’s principal opponent was Dhillon, an effective California attorney and ardent Trumper in her own right. She was the first member of a non-Abrahamic faith to deliver an invocation (in 2016) at the Republican National Convention.

She has carved out an impactful, sometimes even successful, track record litigating on a range of liberty issues, including in defense of fellow Sikhs in the aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks.

She is ardently pro-life and unabashedly a defender of traditional sexual morality and cultural conservativism. She paid her dues in the party rank and file, at the state level and as a leader for the ever-embattled San Francisco Republicans.

The RNC campaign was marred by whispers against the Sikh faith from at least a few supporters of both McDaniel and Lindell. McDaniel rather quickly rejected the faith attacks, while Lindell (asked to react) told a reporter to “shove it.”

Dhillon pushed back, kept her composure and lost with dignity.

 

A fair analysis

 

I am a reporter and a sometimes-editor, including of the commentary writing sent to me each week from fellow Oklahoman Steve Fair, a former member of the Republican National Committee.

At the start of the RNC race, Fair admonished members of the RNC “to please exercise restraint and not publicly endorse a candidate.”

In 2016, he reported, the Oklahoma GOP national committeewoman endorsed McDaniel, who had endorsed Trump.      

Hearkening back to that divisive 2016 chairman’s race and its aftermath, Fair pointed to Rule 11, which calls for public neutrality to assure that presidential nominations and other processes remain neutral toward candidates.

He lost the argument then, and this time. His observation:

“It was like the referees/officials calling a ballgame wearing the jersey of one of the teams. It was inappropriate and unethical. RNC members publicly tried to use their influence to sway voters to their candidate. If a member of the RNC is unable to restrain themselves and must publicly endorse, they should resign their position — pure and simple.”

For the presidency, at least, he said reasonably: “The job of the Party is to conduct a fair primary. Rule 11 is clear!”

In an exchange of emails several weeks ago, Fair wrote:

“In 2020, with an incumbent running for the nomination, there was little controversy during the primary because President Donald Trump was for the most part unopposed. In 2024, we will again likely have a crowded field. That presents the temptation for a member of the RNC to attempt to use their influence for a particular candidate to gain the nomination. No position has more influence in the RNC than the chairman’s position.

“Chairwoman McDaniel was handpicked by President Trump to be RNC Chair. I do not believe she can or will be neutral in the primary process. I do not believe Mr.  Lindell can be neutral, given his public support of President Trump.”

After last Friday’s RNC election win for McDaniel, Fair repeated for me his key points:

“The RNC is responsible for crafting the process and conducting the presidential primary. There must be a level playing field for every candidate. McDaniel had better insure that is the case, or the party could be permanently damaged.”

 

Final thoughts, for now

 

Before the Jan. 27 balloting, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said, “I think we need to get some new blood in the RNC.”

He also reflected on one of the leading challenger’s ideas: “I like what Harmeet Dhillon has said about getting the RNC out of D.C. Why would you want to have your headquarters in the most Democrat city in America? It’s more Democrat than San Francisco is.”

When announcing her challenge to McDaniel last fall, Dhillon said: “After three successive terms of underwhelming results at the polls for the GOP, all the while with leaders congratulating ourselves for outstanding performance, I feel that we owe it to our voters to have a serious debate about the leadership of the party and what we must change to actually win in 2024.”

After her defeat, Dhillon promised to support McDaniel, but tensions obviously linger.

As for the Republican consultants’ class — among whom McDaniel played a key role in choosing financial winners and losers in disbursement of GOP blessings – last week there was, for the most part, muted happiness about the incumbent’s re-election. McDaniel is now the longest-serving Republican party chairman since the Civil War era.

If she really has listened to her critics, she can make some changes.

As a proud member of the Reagan Alumni of Oklahoma, I keep hoping for the best from Republican leaders, but I expect less.

Still, I kind of like that prayer Dhillon offered in 2016:

Please give us the courage to make the right choices, to make common cause with those with whom we disagree, for the greater good of our nation.”

That’s a pretty good prayer, or at least an aspiration.  

Time will tell.

 

Editor’s note: McGuigan is the founder of CapitolBeatOK.com, an online news service in Oklahoma City, editor emeritus of The City Sentinel newspaper, former editorial editor for The Oklahoman, a member of the Society of Professional Journalists, the co-author of “Ninth Justice: The Fight for Bork” and an award-winning writer.