From staff reports The Oklahoma City Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released its latest issue of “Oklahoma Economist” on Thursday, which warns that the Sooner State has some exposure to international trade disruptions.
Businesses and consumers alike have cited elevated levels of uncertainty around international trade policy this year as the U.S. average effective tariff rate increased from around 2% to 18% as of October.
International trade activity in Oklahoma is relatively limited, but a few key sectors produce goods that often rely on trade abroad for procuring inputs and selling outputs, according to Cortney Cowley, assistant vice president and Oklahoma City Branch Executive of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
The latest edition of “Oklahoma Economist” examined the concentration of the state’s exports and imports to determine how it could be exposed to trade disruptions. It found that Oklahoma’s international trade has focused on select products, particularly aerospace exports and oil imports from Canada.
The state’s manufacturing employment has grown this year but has been concentrated in sectors that rely on international trade such as aerospace parts, metals, and machinery.
While Oklahoma has less exposure to international trade in aggregate, the state’s specialization in these trade-heavy sectors and its reliance on Canadian oil could leave pockets of its economy exposed to trade disruptions, said Cowley and Chase Farha, a research associate in the Regional Affairs department at the Oklahoma City Branch of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
International trade has comprised a smaller share of Oklahoma’s economy compared with the rest of the United States. Oklahoma’s exports consistently accounted for about 2.5% to 4% of the state’s Gross Domestic Product, or about half the national average.
Similarly, the state’s imports as a share of GDP have remained around half the U.S. total. Although the import share of GDP has varied more widely over time, imports constituted 5.8% of the state’s GDP in Q2 2025, compared with 10.9% in the U.S.
This could indicate that trade issues have affected Oklahoma less than other parts of the nation, but the product composition of the state’s exports may leave it more exposed to disruptions in certain sectors and countries, Farha and Cowley wrote.
The global destinations of Oklahoma’s exports have largely resembled the nation’s, while the sourcing of international inputs into the state is less diversified.
Europe, Canada, and Asian countries, excluding China, each accounted for approximately a quarter of the state’s exports in 2024. Oklahoma exports a smaller share of goods to Mexico and China than other states but exports a greater share of its goods to Canada.
Similarly, a much higher share of the state’s imports (50%) was sourced from Canada compared with the U.S. total. China was the second-largest source of imported goods at 15%, a similar share to the U.S. total, followed closely by Europe and other Asian countries. Only a small share of products imported into Oklahoma in 2024 were sourced from Mexico.
Although the state’s exports have been well-diversified across the globe, they have been more concentrated in certain products, specifically durable goods, than the United States in total.
Transportation equipment exports comprised a third of all of Oklahoma’s exports in 2024, and metals and machinery accounted for nearly another third. Combined, transportation equipment, metals, and machinery made up most of all exported goods out of the state in 2024. Computers and electrical equipment, as well as mining and chemical exports, were also key products for trade in both the U.S. and Oklahoma.
Oklahoma’s imports also have a high concentration in key commodities, particularly oil. Although the nation’s imports were relatively balanced across categories, mining and chemicals accounted for 43% of all of Oklahoma’s imports in 2024, almost all due to large volumes of Canadian oil imports. The state has imported sizeable amounts of metals and machinery from other countries, but sources a relatively smaller share of transportation equipment and computer and electrical parts from abroad.
Overall, concentrations in durable goods exports and mining imports could leave pockets of the state’s economy exposed to shocks from trade disruptions.