OKLAHOMA CITY - After a long period of growth, Oklahoma’s economy seems to be reaching a plateau with growth of just 0.3% in September 2019, the lowest amount of growth over the last 30 months.
While “gross receipts to the treasury show improvement continues with stable expansion in income, motor vehicle, and use tax receipts ... growth in the state’s economy has leveled off in recent months,” according to State Treasurer Randy McDaniel. He goes on to say that the plateauing of the state’s economy, despite the expansions previously named, is “primarily due to a decline in oil field activity.” Year-over-year collections on the production of oil and gas were down 29.9% in September, as oil prices have dropped 19.2% over the last 12 months.
Total gross collections for September were $1.16 billion, up by just $3.8 million from 2018. Gross income tax collections were up 5.1%, individual income tax collections were up 5.3% and corporate collections were up 4.2% year-over-year. Sales tax collections fell three-tenths of one percent, but when including use tax collections and remittances on behalf of cities and counties, overall sales tax collections rose by one half of one percent. Use tax collections are based on out-of-state purchases, including online sales. Other collections, made up of 60 different sources including fuel, tobacco, medical marijuana and alcohol, were up 8% year over year. Twelve-month gross revenue collections (those from October 2018 to September 2019) were up 9.5% over the previous period.
Oklahoma’s unemployment rate continued to hold, for the fifth consecutive month, at 3.2% in September 2019 as seasonal employment begins to ramp up for the holidays. The national rate dropped from 3.7% in August to 3.5%, with just 5.7 million eligible workers considered unemployed. Over the last 12 months, Oklahoma has added over 8,500 jobs, with the number of working Oklahomans up by 11,118 and those unemployed up by just 2,577, with the total number employed in Septem- ber 2019 at 1,791,305. Wage growth for U.S. workers grew 3.2% over the last year according to the third quarter Workforce Vitality Report by the ADP Research Institute. This was a three-tenths of one percent decline in growth compared to the previous year, with the average hourly wage level at $28.71.
Employment growth continues to remain steady at 1.7% after accelerating in the beginning of 2019, indicating signs of a slowdown in the labor market. Most industries are experiencing growth, with accelerated growth occurring in construction, manufacturing, professional services, and leisure/hospitality. Growth is slowing in finance, information technology, education, healthcare, and trade/transportation. Resources and Mining are the only industry currently retracting, losing 2.7% of wages year-over-year. When it comes to gender, females currently are seeing the most accelerated change in wage, up 3.9% versus 2.9% for males.