By Ron Hays | Radio Okla. Ag Network
The latest U.S. Department of Agriculture cattle inventory report released July 21 revealed that “basically we are getting smaller on numbers, and numbers are getting tighter pretty much across the board,” said Dr. Derrell Peel, OSU Extension livestock marketing specialist.
The “Cattle on Feed” report showed counts below a year ago, “but it has been a slow process to pull those feedlot inventories down,” he said.
“In particular, the number of heifers in the feedlot is exactly the same as a year ago, so steers are down and they have been coming down for several quarters, but we continue to feed a lot of heifers,” Peel said.
Heifer numbers are going to change at some point, and he said he would not have been surprised to see those numbers drop in this recent inventory report- but they did not.
“By January with the inventory report, we will be looking for indications that we are even starting this process (heifer retention),” Peel said.
He talked about the reports in his presentation to the Oklahoma Cattlemen’s Association July 22 and then summed up that he thinks the markets may peak in 2024 or even 2025.
Looking at the markets, Peel said he thinks a 500-pound steer in Oklahoma could bring $4 dollars per pound and an 800-pound steer could go for $3 per pound. Fed cattle, he added, are already coming close to $2 per pound. “We could go substantially over $2, but four, three, two is kind of the way I am looking at it right now.”
Timing is still in question, Peel said, as he is not completely sure when the markets will reach those numbers, but he is confident in his prediction. “It is going to be 2024 or 2025 potentially before we see this thing peak out.”
Cattle producers should have something to sell when prices do increase, he recommended. “There is a tradeoff between taking advantage of the value now versus investing in future value,” Peel said. “There is not one right answer.”