From staff reports An analysis released Aug. 23 examines the current state of wheat production in the European Union and Black Sea regions and its effects on global exportable supplies. According to the August 2024 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, EU wheat production decreased to 128 million metric tons, 5% below last year and the five-year average.
FranceAgiMer, France’s national authority for agriculture and sea products, shows the French wheat crop sitting at 26.3 MMT, down 25% from the five-year average, the lowest output in almost 40 years. Stratégie Grains noted that only 72% of the harvest meets milling quality standards, an 84% decrease from last year.
Germany experienced more favorable conditions, but damp weather still affected planting and crop development. Stratégie Grains estimates German production at 19.2 MMT, down 2.1 MMT since last year. Similarly, Stratégie Grains expects a 9.4% decrease in Polish wheat production due to dry conditions in May and June.
Of the major EU exporters, only Romanian wheat production holds strong at 10.3 MMT, according to Stratégie Grains. With decreased production in several key producers, USDA estimates put EU exports down 9% to 34.0 MMT.
The August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates showed the Russian wheat crop at 83 MMT, down 8.4 MMT from last year due to drought. Likewise, SovEcon, the oldest Black Sea research firm focused on grains and oilseeds markets, lowered their Russian wheat production estimates by 1.8 MMT to 82.9 MMT, in line with the USDA. Similarly, the USDA put Ukrainian production at 21.6 MMT, a 1.4 MMTreduction from 2023/24 due to dry conditions.
Despite a cumulative 16.7 MMT drop in wheat production from the EU, Russia and Ukraine, the total output for major exporters is just 1% lower than last year (2.9 MMT) and 1% below the five-year average.
Increased production forecasts from the U.S., Australia and Canada have balanced out the declines. Nevertheless, the decreased EU and Black Sea production will more heavily impact importers in the Middle Eastern and North Africa region such as Morocco and Egypt, which may prompt them to buy from alternative suppliers.
For now, world prices remain stable, and supplies are sufficient, reported the U.S. Wheat Associates. The organization vows to “continue to offer current supply and demand data to aid customers in making informed decisions.”