DENVER — The United States’ economy is poised to slow in 2022 relative to 2021, but economic growth will continue at a pace that is well above average.
Consumers have powered the economic recovery since mid-2020, and that will continue in the coming year. Consumer spending is expected to rise another 4% to 5% in 2022 and gross domestic product is expected to grow by roughly 4.5%, according to a comprehensive forecast from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange.
“The COVID-19 omicron variant is shaping up to be the wild card of early 2022 and it could delay the rebalancing of the U.S. economy,” Dan Kowalski, vice president of the Knowledge Exchange, said in a news release. “If omicron disrupts the services industry, the majority of consumer spending will again revert to goods, compounding supply chain and inflation problems. However, at this early stage, we expect omicron to have only a modest impact on the economy.”
The report examines several key factors that will shape agriculture and market sectors that serve rural communities throughout the U.S.
Global economy: fragile growth
If the global economy is to perform well in 2022, it will do so despite three significant headwinds: a persistent pandemic, monetary tightening in the U.S. and slowing growth in China, according to the news release. As the world enters the third year of the pandemic, the COVID-19 virus is still in control of the world economy, and it will likely remain so through much of the first half of the year.
The ongoing threat of virus mutations that could evade vaccines will keep economic uncertainty unusually high, according to the news release. Nevertheless, strong consumer demand throughout much of the developed world will keep the economy humming.