Authored by Luke Rogers, U.S. Census Bureau
The U.S. population grew at a slower rate in 2021 than in any other year since the founding of the nation, based on historical decennial censuses and annual population estimates.
The U.S. Census Bureau Vintage 2021 Population Estimates released Tuesday show that population grew only 0.1% and that the COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated the slower growth the country has experienced in recent years.
Since April 1, 2020 (Census Day), the nation’s population increased to 331,893,745, a gain of 444,464, or 0.13%.
Between July 1, 2020, and July 1, 2021, the nation’s growth was due to natural increase (148,043), which is the number of excess births over deaths, and net international migration (244,622). This is the first time that net international migration – the difference between the number of people moving into the country and out of the country – has exceeded natural increase for a given year.
Oklahoma’s estimated population on July 1, 2020, was 3,962,031. During the next 12 months the population grew by an estimated 24,608 to 3,986,639 on July 1, 2021, an increase of 0.62%, Census Bureau ledgers reflect.
The year 2021 is the first time since 1937 that the U.S. population grew by fewer than one million people, featuring the lowest numeric growth since at least 1900, when the Census Bureau began annual population estimates.
Apart from the last few years, when population growth slowed to historically low levels, the slowest rate of growth in the 20th century was from 1918-19 amid the influenza pandemic and World War I.
“Population growth has been slowing for years because of lower birth rates and decreasing net international migration, all while mortality rates are rising due to the aging of the nation’s population,” said Kristie Wilder, a demographer in the Population Division at the Census Bureau. “Now, with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, this combination has resulted in an historically slow pace of growth.”
In other words, since the mid-2010s, births and net international migration have been declining at the same time deaths have been increasing. The collective impact of these trends is slower population growth.
This trend has been amplified by the COVID-19 pandemic, resulting in a historically slow population increase in 2021.
The voting-age resident population, adults aged 18 and over, grew to 258.3 million, comprising 77.8% of the population in 2021.
Three states had populations above 20 million in 2021: California (39.23 million), Texas (29.52 million) and Florida (21.78 million). New York dropped below 20 million people in the last year, slipping from 20.15 million to 19.83 million.
(Dr. Luke Rogers is chief of the Census Bureau’s Population Estimates Branch.)