From staff reports Despite a higher slaughter/production rate, the first quarter pork exports saw a 1.7% decline in domestic availability.
Pork exports are a key factor in the meat market, especially this year. In March, total exports were 621.1 million pounds, almost 13 million pounds (+2%) more than 2023, according to Steiner and Company who produces the Profit Maximizer report on behalf of National Pork Board. Holding the top market for pork at 196.4 million pounds in March (32%), Mexico saw a 28.4 million pound decrease (-23%) since 2023. However, this reduction in exports to Mexico was balanced by higher exports to South Korea, which received 27.4 million pounds (+47%) more than in 2023.
Overall, there was a shortfall in pork availability of around 100 million pounds (-1.7%) in the first quarter of 2024. This decline in supply availability came at a time of high demand among retailers and foodservice operators, especially for fresh pork items such as loins and butts.
If the USDA quarterly survey of hog and pig operations is accurate, hog slaughter in late spring/summer should increase 1.5% to 2% from 2023. Hog carcasses weights may remain under last year depending on forward premiums and weather. According to the pork checkoff, exports will likely remain a key factor for the market going forward, but demand from China shouldn’t be a factor. However, due to increasing competition from Brazil, tracking weekly export sales and shipments remains critical.