WASHINGTON, D.C. – A shortage of nearly 122,000 physicians is expected over the next decade, according to an Association of America Medical Colleges report.
WASHINGTON, D.C. – A shortage of nearly 122,000 physicians is expected over the next decade, affording to an Association of America Medical Colleges report.
The projected shortfall is similar to past projections and ranges from 46,900 to 121,900 physicians.
“The nation’s population is growing and aging, and as we continue to address population health goals like reducing obesity and tobacco use, more Americans will live longer lives, said Darrell G. Kirch, M,D, AAMC president. These factors and others mean we will need more doctors,” said AAMC President and CEO Darrell G. Kirch, MD, CEO, and AAMC president.
Even with new ways of delivering care, America’s doctor shortage continues to remain real and significant, he said.
The United States would need additional 95,900 doctors immediately if health care use patterns were equalized across race, insurance coverage, and geographic location. This shortage would be in addition to the number of providers necessary to meet demand in Health Professions Shortage Areas as designated by the Health Resources and Services Administration. This additional demand was not included in the production of the overall shortage ranges.
The study, the Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections from 2017-2032, includes scenarios that have been refined and updated based on input from stakeholders, and new modeling that examines the impact of emerging health care delivery trends on physician shortages.
Key findings from the report include:
• The projected shortage of physicians by 2032 includes both primary care and specialty care.
• The major factor driving demand for physicians continues to be a growing, aging population. When these physicians decide to retire could have the greatest impact on supply.
• The supply of physician assistants and advanced practice registered nurses are projected to continue to increase.
While rural and historically underserved areas may experience the shortages more acutely, the need for more physicians will be felt everywhere.