SAN ANTONIO – During the National Cattlemen Beef Association’s CattleCon 2025, Terrain’s Chief Research and Analytics Officer Don Close discussed the USDA’s 2024 Cattle Inventory Report.
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Released last week, the report showed that total cattle numbers were down 1% from last year, and the nation’s herd is the smallest it has been since 1951. Close noted that the 1% decline is significant.
“Those inventory numbers are such large base numbers that a 1% shift in those numbers is like turning an ocean liner,” Close told Oklahoma Farm Report. “I think the fallout from that report will be longer lasting than what the initial market reaction was.”
Comparing the 2024 report to that of 2014 – another low point – Close said that, currently there are 1.5 million more cattle on feed than then. The increase is due to the extended days on feed, the rise of beef on dairy, and growing the cattle bigger before processing; however, the available supply of cattle outside of feedyards is down half a million head from last year.
Close predicts a strong, stable market through the first half of 2025, but the contracted numbers will likely be felt during the second half of the year.
He fears that the market will continue to build to a plateau that producers will be fraught to take advantage of before they begin to rebuild their herds, meaning that it is going to get worse before it gets better. Uncertainty about the severity of the La Niña weather system is also top of mind for many producers who may be considering whether or not to expand their herds.
“One thing that we haven’t included is the challenges to this expansion,” Close noted. “If you look at the escalation in the average cow size over the 10 to 20 years, the additional consumption for maintenance is stressing these individual operations to where they simply don’t have the pasture room to add cattle to it.”
It was pointed out that the heart of cattle country in Missouri, Oklahoma, and Texas showed increased beef cow numbers, and Close admitted that it was a good sign, but also the area of highest risk should the La Niña strengthen.
When analyzing the differences in the replacement heifer numbers, heifers on feed, and other heifer categories, Close noted anecdotal evidence of some heifer retention but said that the raw numbers do not imply any major shift in that direction.