Focusing on rebuilding the nation’s cow herd, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Market Economist Dr. Derrell Peel analyzed the most recent USDA Cattle-on-Feed Report, which was released in late May.
Peel noted that the only real data point suggesting that rebuilding may be starting is that the heifers on feed number in the April report was at the lowest it has been in five years.
“Heifer slaughter in the last five weeks has dropped more significantly; steers have, too, for that matter,” Peel said. “If you put heifer and cow slaughter together and think about female slaughter as a percent of total cattle slaughter, it continues to come down. It is still well above levels that would confirm that we are actively rebuilding the herd, but we are certainly moving in that direction.”
Peel’s suspicions were confirmed anecdotally by producers and lenders observing greater interest in retaining heifers and beginning to repopulate herds. This interest has been helped by improved forage conditions over the past six weeks and the availability of pond water. He acknowledged the drought remaining in the northern states will slow progress.
“I think it will be a relatively slow pace,” he said. “But I do think we are getting started with some heifer retention and beginning the process that eventually will lead to some herd rebuilding.”
According to Peel, significant beef production won’t increase until 2028, and beef supply will be squeezed even tighter in the meantime as fewer cows and heifers enter the pipeline.
He admitted that the implementation of herd rebuilding will look different for each producer and will likely be challenging for many.
“If you are going to do it,” he said, “you want to do it sooner rather than later. But exactly how you do that is going to depend on the specific situation. In terms of saving your own heifers or going out and buying heifers, it’s an individual situation. But you certainly can’t take advantage of the market we have and are going to have for at least a couple more years if you aren’t producing calves to sell.”