The long road to recovery
LAWTON — Lawton has weathered the economic recession of 2020-21 and may see a strong economy in 2022, an economist said Wednesday.
“The forecast is way more optimistic than it was a year ago,” said Mark Snead, president of the Oklahoma City-based economic research firm RegionTrack.
Snead discussed Lawton’s economic forecast during the Lawton-Fort Sill Economic Development Corp.’s annual luncheon, which took place Wednesday at the Hilton Garden Inn and Convention Center.
The Lawton metro area lost 4,700 private-sector jobs – a drop of 10.4% – during the pandemic-related recession, according to the LEDC’s economic review and forecast for 2021. But the region has already recovered about 3,200 jobs through the second quarter of this year and is seeing some growth.
Federal and state stimulus money helped the region and the state recover from the recession, as most areas of the state are seeing self-sustaining growth return.
The employment outlook for 2021 suggests that the Lawton area will add about 700 more new jobs in the second half of this year and more than 1,200 jobs in 2022, a gain of 2.9% over the year, according to the LEDC.
The Lawton metro area’s unemployment rate bounced back to almost-normal levels by the first half of this year, according to the LEDC. The organization said some upward pressure on the jobless rate is likely to occur later this year and in 2022, as people who lost their jobs during the pandemic return to the work force.
The Lawton area reported approximately 5,000 non-farm goods-producing jobs in 2021, with about 3,500 of those jobs coming from manufacturing. Manufacturing employment remained fairly stable during the pandemic, shedding fewer than 200 jobs in 2020.
Manufacturing is expected to gain about 109 jobs in 2021, but the construction and mining sectors may see additional small losses.
The private-services sector lost 1,550 jobs during the pandemic, but it is expected to add more than 800 new jobs this year as the region recovers, according to the LEDC. Most of those jobs will likely be in leisure and hospitality, retail trade, education and health services, and financial services.
Civilian government hiring was weak during the pandemic, losing more than 430 jobs. Local government lost the most jobs at 390, while state government lost only 40 jobs.
Military employment helped cushion the impact of the economic slowdown, adding 300 workers in 2020, according to the LEDC. Total military employment in Lawton could post another small gain in 2021, reaching an estimated 12,860 jobs.
“Combined, military and federal civilian hiring in Lawton is projected to total 16,941 in 2021,” the LEDC said.
Total employment – including private-sector wage and salary workers, self-employed proprietors and government workers – reached 70,090 jobs in 2020, a 1% gain. The addition of 400 new self-employed proprietors accounted for much of the gain.
Despite those gains, it may take a few years before the region recovers all the jobs it lost during the pandemic, Snead said.
“I think the point you can take from this is that we are still expecting to remain below pre-pandemic hiring levels through at least 2022 and into, probably, early 2024,” he said. “It’s going to take a long time to recover these jobs.”