OKLAHOMA CITY – The Great Plains struggled to retain population between 2020 and 2021, and large urban counties experienced an exodus of 863,000 residents last year, the first time this group has had negative growth in the past 50 years, the Economic Innovation Group reported.
However, Oklahoma was “a clear exception,” the bipartisan public policy organization noted. The two major urban counties – Oklahoma and Tulsa – and the surrounding region all realized gains in population.
Based on one-way U-Haul truck traffic, Oklahoma was the No.14 state for net do-it-yourself movers in 2019 and 2020, but fell to No. 44 in 2021, U-Haul reported. Arriving customers accounted for 49.6% of all one-way U-Haul traffic in Oklahoma last year, compared to 50.6% in 2020.
The most popular destination cities of one-way inbound U-Haul truck traffic the past two years were Edmond, Yukon, Norman, Broken Arrow, Owasso, Ardmore, Shawnee, Stillwater, Claremore, Grove, Tahlequah, Eufaula and Davis.
Texas was the leading “growth state” in 2021, for the fourth time in the last six years, followed by Florida, Tennessee, South Carolina and Arizona. For the second consecutive year, California ranked 50th as the state with the steepest out-migration (the largest net loss of U-Haul trucks crossing its border) and Illinois ranked 49th. New York placed 45th, one step behind Oklahoma.
The migration data is compiled from “well over two million” one-way U-Haul truck customer transactions that occur annually, said Jeff Lockridge, manager of media and public relations for U-Haul International.
“While U-Haul migration trends do not correlate directly to population or economic growth,” the company’s statistics are “an effective gauge of how well states are at both attracting and maintaining residents,” Lockridge said.
U-Haul records indicate 1 in 5 persons move each year, and three-fourths of all movers are do-it-yourselfers. The company estimates that 17 to 20 million Americans may move this summer, and 40 to 50 million may move sometime this year. Nearly 45% of all moves occur between Memorial Day and Labor Day, U-Haul records reflect.
68% of urban counties
lost residents in 2021
A little over two-thirds of the large urban counties in the U.S. lost population in 2021, “an exceptionally high share by historical standards,” EIG reported.
Deaths from COVID-19, declining birth rates, and a dramatic slowdown in international migration combined to make 2021 the slowest year for population growth in American history, according to new data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
Urban counties are no longer driving population growth in this country.
Large urban counties (defined as those with more than 250,000 people that include an urban center) comprise 32% of the country’s population, while small urban counties represent 16% of the country’s population; thus, approximately half of America’s population are in these urban counties.
The combined population of suburban and exurban counties comprise 27% of the country’s population and the remaining quarter of the population live in rural counties.
In 2011, when the country as a whole added 2.3 million new residents, urban counties had a net population increase of 1.5 million from the previous year, compared to 600,000 for suburban and exurban counties.
By 2017 these two groups had nearly reached parity, with the former adding one million new residents and the latter adding 900,000. Since 2017, suburban and exurban counties have had a net population growth that exceeds urban counties and the gap is widening each year, records reflect.
This precipitous decline in urban population growth corresponds with a national slowdown in immigration.
Large urban counties that since 2016 have seen dwindling numbers of international migrants – a crucial ingredient for their economic success – experienced unprecedented losses of domestic migrants in 2021 as the pull of suburban and exurban counties intensified.
Many moving to
smaller counties
“One year of data is insufficient to draw any sweeping conclusions about the future of American cities,” EIG’s Connor O’Brien wrote. “These places are hubs of dynamism and reinvention that have persevered through a multitude of economic and demographic shocks.” Nonetheless, the share of Americans living in a suburban or exurban county steadily increased from 22% in 1970 to 27% in 2021, while the share in an urban county has remained largely unchanged, he pointed out.
While 2021 may seem exceptional, “and in many respects it was,” it served to accelerate demographic trends in place before the pandemic, O’Brien continued.
The momentum of cities “clearly crested in the early 2010s and they may have a long road ahead to regain that momentum,” he wrote. “Some shocks such as the widespread embrace of remote working relationships are starting to feel lasting and represent powerful forces for pushing economic activity out of urban hubs, especially the highest-cost ones.” However, some issues such as immigration are “policy-dependent, too.”
The future health of cities will depend on “expanding the pipeline of skilled immigrants and addressing the housing stock and affordability crisis that makes living in far-flung suburbs the cheapest option for many Americans.”