OKLAHOMA CITY – Though many political experts say Oklahoma is among “the reddest of the red states,” that designation doesn’t mean residents wouldn’t support a tax increase.
At least on smoking or vaping.
Detailed in the latest Sooner Survey, an analysis by Cole Hargrave Snodgrass & Associates shows that “65% of voters support a tax increase equivalent to $1.50 per pack on cigarettes and only 30% oppose doing so.”
“This is substantially stronger than the 52% to 41% margin recorded leading up to the 2004 vote on State Question 713 – and even the 62% support we had in April of 2017 when tobacco taxes were being discussed during that budget crisis which resulted in a legislatively approved $1 per pack increase,” CHS President Pat McFerron wrote.
MeFerron, a nationally recognized pollster and consultant, said the numbers are telling because of that 65% threshold and because “a remarkable 48% say they strongly favor an increase – more than twice the percentage that say they strongly oppose (22%).”
And while the number of Oklahomans who either smoke or vape has dropped, at least one of every four high school students reported vaping in the past 30 days, according to the Tobacco Settlement Endowment Trust.
Additionally, TSET reported that 60% of vape users between the ages of 15 and 24 have reported wanting to quit. Those numbers mean that, in Oklahoma alone, smoking- caused productivity losses are estimate at $2.1 billion.
Still, Oklahoma remains a strongly conservative state, McFerron wrote.
But that designation comes with some boundaries. He said the ideological anti-tax bent is abandoned when it comes to tobacco and related taxes.
According to TSET, an increase in tobacco taxes of $1.50 would prevent more than 28,000 youths from becoming adult smokers, encourage 30,400 adult smokers to quit, prevent 16,7000 future smoking-caused deaths, and save the state more than $1.2 billion in future health care costs.
For McFerron, the most stunning fact in the Sooner Survey is just how well a tobacco tax does among Republicans (60% in favor, 35% opposed). He said the numbers are just as solid among those Republicans with a history of voting in Republican primary elections, that is 60% in favor and 34% opposed.
“This very well could be the only type of tax that would have this type of support,” McFerron wrote. “This makes this an easier path to increase revenue should changes at the federal level require the state to make difficult choices, especially as it relates to Medicaid funding. While our other polling shows support for cutting the income tax and a growing concern about property taxes, a substantial tobacco tax increase is very popular among Sooner State voters.”
State lawmakers will return to the Capitol in February for the Second Session of the 60th Oklahoma Legislature.