Two reports on national holiday shopping trends forecast spending will be up this year from hurried consumers who face fewer days until Christmas. The reports document the types of gifts shoppers seek, among other trends in the retail marketplace.
Both the National Retail Federation and Deloitte conducted surveys of consumers and retailers. The NRF is the world’s largest retail association, and Deloitte is among the oldest global professional services networks that publishes annual retail holiday trends.
Consumers will be in a time crunch this year, with five fewer days between Thanksgiving and Christmas.
“Despite the shorter window of time between Thanksgiving and Christmas, retailers are prepared to meet the needs of consumers by providing holiday shoppers with earlier deals and sales and by ensuring inventory is available for the most in-demand items this year,” wrote Katherine Cullen, NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights.
The NRF expects holiday shopping to grow by 2.5% to 3.5% from last year’s totals— at least $902 budgeted per person.
Overall retail growth is primarily from online buyers. Online and nontraditional forms of retail are expected to grow between 8% and 9%, or from a total of $295.1 billion to $297.2 billion, the report stated. Last year non-store sales ticked up 10.7% in 2023 over 2022.
The federation’s survey showed consumers plan to spend $902, up from $875 the previous year and a record in the last decade. Spending was at its lowest in 2013 at $767 and steadily increased until 2022 when it dropped from $879 to $833.
“The winter holidays are an important tradition to American families, and their capacity to spend will continue to be supported by a strong job market and wage growth,” wrote NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay.
Retailers expect to hire between 400,000 and 500,000 seasonal workers, about the same number last year, to cope with the expected buying boost, NRF reported. Deloitte forecast more bullish Driven by higher income earners, Deloitte’s forecast was more optimistic following its holiday retail survey. Its analysis placed an uptick in spending to 8% for consumers, or an average of $1,778 per shopper.
The report indicated consumers are optimistic for the economy, but that doesn’t mean they’ll refrain from bargain buys.
“The uptick in spend is attributed to a rosier economic outlook, perceived higher prices and an increase in spend by the $100,000 to $199,000 income group,” Deloitte reported.
Deloitte’s report also showed the budget per person by income bracket. Those who earn less than $50,000 a year plan to spend $829, those up to $99,000 budgeted $1,548 and those up to $199,000 plan to spend $2,546. The highest earners, above $200,000, plan to spend slightly less than last year at $3,887, down from $3,922.
Still, customers in all income groups are also being more frugal with 70% expecting higher prices this year and across all income groups, 40% of those surveyed indicated they would be frugal consumers, the report stated.
Retailers were also surveyed, with 76% who believe most consumers will opt for lower prices over preferred brands.
Their report also indicated a strong trend toward shoppers who plan to spend their money on experiences up 16% year-over-year. Spending on experiences includes holiday events and socializing with friends and loved ones. Spending on party apparel and decorations is expected to increase in line with the trend of experience buying.
Shopping trends The National Retail Federation said gifts for family members are the primary driver for holiday buyers and the prioritization of gifts for loved ones reflects a return to normal spending patterns following the pandemic.
Deloitte and the NRF’s predictions slightly varied as to what their respondents said they plan to buy.
Among those surveyed by the federation, 53% want to receive gift cards, followed by 49% who want clothing or accessories, 28% for books and other media and 25% reported personal care or beauty products. Electronics and home décor accounted for 22% of the gifts hoped for followed by 20% for jewelry and 17% for sporting goods.
Deloitte’s report indicated 71% plan to purchase clothing and accessories, followed by food spending at 63% and toys at 67%. Electronics accounted for 52% followed by gift cards at 47%.
The NFR trend report differed slightly. It showed 57% of consumers planned to buy online, 46% plan to shop in department stores and 46% reported food spending as part of their holiday budget. Discount stores are expected to draw 45% of survey respondents while clothing stores account for 31%. Just 23% said they planned to shop at local businesses and 19% at electronic stores.
Deloitte’s report indicated even more plan to shop online, 71% versus 55% who planned to shop in mass merchant retailers and 31% in department stores. Discount store buying will take up 29% and small businesses, 28%. Books and grocery stores accounted for 24% of shoppers’ preferences.
While Deloitte’s report did not capture thrift store buyers, the NRF reports that 12% of shoppers are expected to reach harder for bargain gifts.
“This does go up significantly when we look at younger consumers in the 18-24 age range,” Cullen said during an online discussion of the report. “We do know that thrifting and secondhand has been a trend that Gen Z has embraced with a lot of fervor, and we do see that carry out in the holidays as well, with a little more openness in that generation in terms of interest in giving or receiving from a thrift store.”
Only 45% of shoppers expected to tackle their Christmas list before November, around the same number last year, the NFR reported. Deloitte’s report stated 68% plan to shop during the week of Thanksgiving.
Deloitte’s survey polled more than 4,000 consumers, while the NFR polled more than 8,000.